Bitcoin Aussie System Review - Scam or Safe? Know Before ...

Four issues that everyone needs to pay attention to when entering the currency circle

Four issues that everyone needs to pay attention to when entering the currency circle

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Too many novice players entering the currency circle are often attracted by some magic wealth-making tales. However, reality will tell you that investment is a science, and there are no shortcuts. The same is true for seemingly magical currency circles.
So everyone must be aware of these four issues before entering the currency circle:
Is the contract risk really higher than the spot?
What indicators should be paid attention to in the currency market?
What are the basic usage specifications of contract tools?
What should be the first indicator of concern in contract trading?

Why has Bitcoin fallen into a downturn recently?

The A-share gains in the past two days have been gratifying, and many currency friends have begun to consider returning. However, the right side that shows the downturn of Bitcoin has caused a lot of confusion. Why has Bitcoin into a short market in the past two weeks? 58COIN experts pointed out two main reasons.
One is the concentrated selling of miners. From June 23 to the early morning of June 24, the miners sold more than 5000 BTC. Then at 3 pm on June 24, Bitcoin began to fall sharply, so that in June It fell below the $9,000 mark on the 25th.

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Second, Bitcoin is still highly correlated with traditional markets such as S&P 500, and the collapse of traditional financial assets might also have caused it to fall into a short market, which is similar to the logic behind the 312 Bitcoin crash.
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Should you proceed to stick to the spot?
Bitcoin is stuck in the short market. JiuCai is facing a very real problem that most crypto-lovers are still persistent in spot trading, although most also know the role of the contract in the downtrend which allows to make money, but naturally we all think that the contract means high risk, means less safety than the spot. But this is a typical cognitive misunderstanding.

In fact, the contract is the same tool as the spot, and the contract is not necessarily riskier than the spot.

The contract is similar to the futures of the traditional financial market. It can be bearish and bullish, and it is leveraged in nature, without delay, and is traded in real time. In particular, perpetual contracts are a new risk hedging and hedging financial instrument compared to futures in traditional financial markets. In the case of holding positions of the same value, when the opening points are the same, under the same market situation, the profit and loss of the two tend to be the same, but because the contract has additional leverage, the principal occupied is less than Spot, so in comparison, the risk of the contract may not be higher than that of the spot, and the capital utilization rate and return rate of the contract can be obviously better than the spot . In addition, even in a bear market, contracts can be profitable, and the operational space is actually much richer than the spot market.

Of course, some people have their positions liquidated frequently, which is quite scary. This tells us that no matter how good the tool is, it still needs to follow the basic rules of use. 58COIN experts give these few tips on contract trading:
  1. Reduce the risk factor

Strictly control positions and leverage, choose only one option either high leverage or numerous positions, numerous positions + high leverage together will undoubtedly run towards the crematorium;

  1. Open positions with logic

Opening orders is driven by opportunity logic rather than emotions. Mastering this logic requires investors to strengthen their scope and knowledge, to look at many indicators, and establish a full-dimensional indicator system.

In short, for all players, "less positions, lower leverage and close when you see fit" will never go out of style.

Establishing a full-dimensional indicator system
As the teacher of 58COIN said, you must speak logic when you open an order. In fact, this applies to any kind of investment market. So in the digital asset contract market, how to understand the logic of opening?

Different from the stock market, the digital currency market has insufficient liquidity and high price fluctuations. 58COIN experts believe that digital asset investors need to build a full-dimension decision-making system if they want to be comfortable with it. In addition to some basic technical indicators, investors should also observe some data indicators, network indicators and market sentiment indicators, and refer to authoritative trading reports.

Some indicators are listed as follows:
• Data indicators & composite indicators: new addresses, active addresses, number of transactions, transaction volume, total addresses, Metcalfe index, Odlyzko index;
• Transaction report: CFTC COT report;
• Network indicators: 360 index, Baidu index, Weibo index, Google index;
• Market sentiment: panic index, greed index.

After establishing your own indicator system, you must balance your mentality, always maintain a suspicious mentality, fear the market, evolve yourself, and insist on continuous learning.

It’s important to focus on maintaining margin ratio
Maybe you didn't make a contract, but you should have heard the saying "close out" many times. Yes, the first task of making a contract is to prevent liquidation. What are the key indicators of liquidation? On the surface, the liquidation price or risk level has not reached the critical value, but it is actually the available margin (the remaining principal under the isolated margin). Can the lower limit of the maintenance margin be met, and what indicators can be used to measure this limit ? Maintain margin rate.

It sounds unfamiliar at first, but you can understand that insolvency will lead to liquidation. If the maintenance margin rate is high, the platform will force to close in order to protect you from losing too much and. If the maintenance margin rate is low, the platform will remain friendly, allowing you to reconsider your actions in order to avoid losing too much. Therefore, players must first choose platforms that maintain a low margin rate when playing contracts, which means their contract design is more friendly. If you really don 't have time to make a choice, you can first try the industry's more recognized "king of contracts" 58COIN, which is currently the industry's fixed minimum value of 0.5%, and there is no holding fee.

There is no shortcut to investment, contract is a learning, any successful investor is evolved thanks to constant improvement and learning.
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Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.
The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.
Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.

Stock Market Crash

The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially.
All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity.
Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses.
Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely.
So, why inflate the economy so much?
Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value.
Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat.
Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis.
Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.

Economic Analysis of Bitcoin

The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero.
Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology.
Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value.
Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block.
Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer.
Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed.
Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public.
A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved.
Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely.
Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.

Trading or Investing?

The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.

Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin

Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
  • Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
  • VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
  • Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.

Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin

Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.

Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin

Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
  • Yearly Lows (last seven years): 1/1/13, 4/10/14, 1/15/15, 1/17/16, 1/1/17, 12/15/18, 2/6/19
  • Monthly Mode: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 12
  • Daily Mode: 1, 1, 6, 10, 15, 15, 17
  • Monthly Lows (for the last year): 3/12/20 (10:00pm), 2/28/20 (7:09am), 1/2/20 (8:09pm), 12/18/19 (8:00am), 11/25/19 (1:00am), 10/24/19 (2:59am), 9/30/19 (2:59am), 8/29,19 (4:00am), 7/17/19 (7:59am), 6/4/19 (5:59pm), 5/1/19 (12:00am), 4/1/19 (12:00am)
  • Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
  • Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
  • Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
  • Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points
Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows.
Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram.
1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21
2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm
In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year!
Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market.
Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020.
The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
  • 2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
  • 3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
  • 5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
  • 5/26/20 – hashrate difficulty halvening
  • 11/14/20 – stock market low
  • 1/15/21 – yearly low for BTC, around $8528
  • 8/19/21 – end of stock bear market
  • 11/26/21 – eighteen months from halvening, average peak from halvenings (BTC begins rising from $3000 area to above $23,312)
  • 4/23/22 – all-time high
Taken from my blog: http://aliamin.info/2020/
submitted by aibnsamin1 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

LOEx Market Research Report on July 25: Disputes escalate, stock fall and gold rises. How can BTC remain calm?

LOEx Market Research Report on July 25: Disputes escalate, stock fall and gold rises. How can BTC remain calm?
[Today's Hot Tips]
1. [U.S. Federal Court defines BTC as "currency"]
The U.S. Federal Court stated on Friday that Bitcoin is defined as “currency”under the Money Transmitter Act in Washington, DC.
2. [Liu Jun, President of Bank of Communications: The internationalization of RMB needs to take into account the development and changes of digital currency]
According to Sina Finance, the 2020 International Monetary Forum opened online today. Liu Jun, deputy secretary and president of the Bank of Communications, delivered a keynote speech. He believes that the internationalization of the RMB needs to take into account the development and changes of digital currency. In Liu Jun's view, in view of the development of the digital economy, the breadth, depth, and degree of RMB internationalization need to be further strengthened, and digital thinking must be integrated. The digital economy is a brand new paradigm faced by global economies. The digital economy not only shapes the environment for digital currency issuance, but also provides a new direction for the development of the international monetary system.
3. [U.S. Department of Health officials claim that they are using blockchain technology to track hospitalization data for the new coronavirus]
According to Forbes on July 25, the Coronavirus Data Hub, a new platform of the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), is adjusting hospitals to report important information about the new coronavirus.
[Today's market analysis]
Bitcoin (BTC)BTC has been sideways near 9540 USDT in the morning, rebounded around 9:30 and pulled up. It just broke through 9600 USDT in a short-term and rose to 9619 USDT at the highest level, followed by a slight correction. At present, the overall BTC is adjusted within a narrow range around 9580 USDT. In the morning, the trend of mainstream currencies was similar to that of the broader market, and both rose to varying degrees. BTC is currently reported 9587.7 USDT on LOEx Global, a 24h increase of 0.43%. From the perspective of the concentration of the 5/10/30 moving average system on the daily line, the market already has the conditions to rise, but why did the Sino-US dispute escalate into this, the stock plummeted, gold skyrocketed, but BTC remained calm?
https://preview.redd.it/7upgyt18xyc51.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=1d9bd74d934a6c17e4f83bbe7e7c3f93f2e9c8ba
My personal judgment is that BTC has latency. How did this latency occur? It is determined by the main emotion of the market. We saw the comparison of the above two boxes. We analyzed the pressure area above 9700 the day before yesterday. In the previous period, the transaction volume was too large, and the pressure on the entire market was very high in this range. If it is directly pulled up, it will require very high capital for the main force. This is a cost they are unwilling to pay. Because it has been fluctuating at a low level of around 9,000, so that the chips above 9,700 are very tight, so the main force can not rashly pull up.
The shape of the market already has a signal to rise. The reason for the lack of movement is that the subsequent trading volume is too small and the number of participants is too small. It is difficult for the accumulated volume of the market to break through the pressure zone of 9700-10000 in one fell swoop, otherwise the subsequent selling will be very serious, unless the news of the entire market cooperates and emergencies occur.
The current strategy is to hold positions firmly, and there is no position to wait and see for opportunities. The safety zone remains around 9300-9400 as previously judged.
Operation suggestions:
Support level: the first support level is 9300 points, the second support level is 9400 integers;
Resistance level: the first resistance level is 9600 points, the second resistance level is 9800 points.
LOEx is registered in Seychelles. It is a global one-stop digital asset service platform with business distribution nodes in 20 regions around the world. It has been exempted from Seychelles and Singapore Monetary Authority (MAS) digital currency trading services. Provide services and secure encrypted digital currency trading environment for 2 million community members in 24 hours.
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DON’T PANIC. The Guide To The Current Situation In The Cryptogalaxy

DON’T PANIC. The Guide To The Current Situation In The Cryptogalaxy
In the last month, the world markets are experiencing dramatic events. In light of the coronavirus pandemic, an economic crisis is unfolding in the world. Because of quarantine actions across the world, many manufactures and non-food stores are being closed, the level of product turnover is falling. Small and medium-sized businesses suffer huge losses due to downtime, the unemployment rate increases and the purchasing power, in the opposite, decreases.
The value of the CBOE VIX index, reflecting the level of market volatility, increased the value to 82 points, for comparison, during the 2008 crisis, this index did not exceed 80 points, and in recent years it has been held at the level of 15-25 with peaks up to 45. Against the background of total panic among investors, on March 30, Brent crude updated the minimum of November 2002, falling to the level of $22.6 per barrel. The S&P, Dow Jones and Nikkei indexes are critically losing their positions. Experts note that the downward trend began even before the announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic, but the spread of the disease played a crucial role in the crisis increase.
by StealthEX
At the same time, digital assets also found themselves in a zone of turbulence: in the middle of the month, the price of bitcoin fell to $3800, followed by the price of altcoins. Panic sale leads to a chain reaction, many investors are getting rid of the cryptocurrency which is considered a risky investment, and the price of coins continues to decline.
The cryptocurrency market highly depends on what is happening in the world, so it will strengthen and continue to grow only when the situation with the pandemic becomes clear and less unpredictable. Therefore, the main task at this stage is to maintain composure and don’t give in to emotions when making decisions.
Despite the extremely uncertain situation, most analysts now give fairly favorable forecasts. Judging by the latest fluctuations in the exchange rate, the cryptocurrency market has come out of an uncontrolled fall. In their opinion, we expect a long flat with a slow trend of price growth against the background of halving. Despite bearish trends and skidding at $6,500, at the close of the quarter, bitcoin was able to hold above the important support level of $6,400. Michaël van de Poppe, a cryptanalyst of the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, believes that now bitcoin is in the stage of consolidation and will gradually pay off in the next 4-6 years. Tuur Demeester, analyst and founder of Adamant Capital, suggests that holding the $6,300 level could be a key resistance level before the bull market can resume.
Similar dynamics are predicted for altcoins, which maintain a high correlation with the first cryptocurrency.
Here’s what the quarterly charts for BTC, ETH and XRP look like:

Bitcoin chart for 3 months. Source: CoinGecko

Ethereum chart for 3 months. Source: CoinGecko

XRP chart for 3 months. Source: CoinGecko
Also, experts in cryptocurrency research believe that the current situation in the oil and stock markets can have a positive impact on digital currencies. WTI oil, like Brent, fell to the level of 2002, trading around $20 mark. Black gold continues to look very vulnerable as well as the prospects for the oil market in general.
At the end of the first quarter of 2020, the bitcoin exchange rate decreased by 13%, but in comparison with traditional stock markets, the first cryptocurrency showed more successful results. The S&P 500 index, which includes shares of the 500 largest companies by capitalization, fell 19% to 2,584 points. This is the worst figure since 1938. President Trump’s proposal to allocate $2.2 trillion to support the American economy is criticized by many economists as leading to more problems than offering a real solution. They consider hyperinflation as the most likely scenario for the next year.
Since cryptocurrencies are not subject to inflation and are not in control of governments and banks, many predict that digital assets will be popular as a tool for hedging risks.
Earlier co-founder and CEO of Gemini exchange Tyler Winklevoss stated in his twitter:
https://preview.redd.it/xc61jsazlls41.png?width=768&format=png&auto=webp&s=06084bd6d511f93da4c485cd7eb3281566f2c4cc
The founder, head and CEO of the Galaxy Digital, Michael Novogratz, also believes that cryptocurrencies with mathematically limited emission could be a safe haven in the face of inflation.

Peter Brandt called the current crisis a “perfect storm” and noted that it could be a crucial period for Bitcoin. It is at this point that the coin can reveal itself as a protective asset and grow in price. In his tweet of March 23, he also advises treating cryptocurrencies as insurance policies rather than investments.
Trading volume on 22 popular crypto exchanges increased by 61% in the first quarter compared to the previous one — to $154 billion.
In March, major cryptocurrency exchanges recorded a sharp increase in the number of new users. Pierre Richard strategist of the Kraken exchange believes that people who are concerned about the futile efforts of the authorities to contain the crisis against the background of the pandemic feel the need to leave the centralized financial system.
With other positive aspects, we should not forget that cryptocurrencies remain extremely susceptible to manipulation by major players. That collapse, which we experienced in the middle of the month, allowed corporations to buy coins at an extremely low price and, in fact, nothing can prevent them from attacking the market in the future.
Whatever happens on the market, you can always exchange coins at StealthEX as we always have unlimited exchanges without requesting personal data. A large number of currencies available for exchange will allow you to create your investment portfolio in the most suitable way for you.
Original article was posted on https://stealthex.io/blog/2020/04/09/dont-panic-the-guide-to-the-current-situation-in-the-cryptogalaxy/
submitted by Stealthex_io to StealthEX [link] [comments]

1.4 What are the elements of a complete strategy?

1.4 What are the elements of a complete strategy?

Summary

A complete strategy is actually a set of rules that traders give themselves. It includes all aspects of the trading, and does not leave a little room for subjective imagination. Every choices of buying and selling, the strategy will give an answer. It includes at least strategy selection, variety selection, fund management, order placing, extreme market situation response and so on.

Strategy choosing

From the perspective of hedge funds, mainstream trading strategies can be divided into trend trading, paired trading, basket trading, event-driven, high-frequency trading, option strategy, etc., as shown below.

https://preview.redd.it/fau662l3t3s41.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=890162efc3c87553c9bd8db0521a0a7bb903f9c3
Of course, the way of strategy classification is not fixed. For the beginners, don't worry about so many noun concepts, let's start from the simplest. If only one type of quantitative trading strategy is recommended, it will be the trend trading, which is the most simple and effective. I believe that even if you don't have a systematic knowledge of financial learning, you can still use it. And this strategy has been around for a long time. Among the early public-published trading strategies, it is still effective in many markets today, because human nature is difficult to change.

What to buy and sell

Those who have done trading should know that each variety has its own personality. Some varieties are very popular, with good liquidity, large fluctuations, and high volatility; some varieties are very "docile", and they are oscillating within a certain range all year round, with low volatility.

https://preview.redd.it/zut9xw07t3s41.png?width=940&format=png&auto=webp&s=5eeb4dd6d649cf3a557c700d26cba273ffe06ec8
Therefore, when choosing a trading variety, there must be a concept of volatility. Varieties with high volatility are often easy to get out of a good trend. For commodity futures, if it is a trend-tracking strategy, try to choose industrial products. In terms of variety attributes, industrial products tend to be more volatile than agricultural products. For crypto trading, choose those major coins, such as bitcoin, eth, eos and so on.
Different strategies adapt to different market conditions. Choosing a good trading variety, which is a very crucial beginning for the future trading project. In absolute terms, there are no absolutely good varieties and no absolutely bad varieties. Depending on the investment style and the risk tolerance, you need to adjust accordingly to your own standards.

How much to buy and sell

It is easy to loss money when trading. When the account fund loses 50%, the loss will require 100% profit to recover it. Even if you can earn 100% many times, you only need to lose 100% once, which will lose it all. So mature trading strategies should include money management.
In order to facilitate everyone's understanding, here also use the average line strategy of the previous section to explain. In fact, many trading strategies built with traditional technical indicators have a maximum retracement rate of more than 50% or more. But is a risky strategy completely unusable?
Obviously not, the maximum retracement rate can be completely controlled by money management. If you cut the position by half, the overall risk will be reduced by half, and the maximum retracement rate will be 30%. If you reduce the position by half again, the maximum retracement rate will become 15%. Finally, we get a maximum retracement rate at around 15%. This is a simple and easy method of money management. Many people know that they can't go all in, but they don't know why. The answer is here.

When to buy and sell

A good jump in point is very important, and it allows you to get out of the cost zone quickly. But there will never be anyone who can tell you that it is right at this point, and it is wrong at that point. Opening a position is not the core of the trading. The core of the trading is how to optimize the position after opening the position.
Whether it is a short-term strategy or a long-term strategy, it doesn't matter how long the position will be holding, the important is the risk-to-profit ratio. In other words, the final result that affects the performance of the strategy is how to play and when to cash out. The cash out method can be divided into two types: stop loss and take profit. Both of these parts are necessary for any trading system and are an important watershed for the success or failure of trading strategies.

How to buy

1, Type and method of order placement: There are many types and methods of placing orders, such as: queuing limit orders, opponent price, latest price, over price, daily limit price, buying one price, buying two price, selling one price, selling two price. or use the queue price first, then use the over-price, sending batch order, or split the big order into small orders, or simply place the order directly.
2, Withdraw order If there are unexecuted orders, whether continue waiting or withdraw the order. The condition for the withdrawal is based on the time. For example, there is no transaction within 10 seconds. The price has been 10 units away from the order price, whether to continue waiting, withdrawing or chasing the new price.
3, chase the price When the order is unexecuted, whether to chase the price. If chasing the price, it is to chase according to the latest price, or the opponent price, or the limit price? If the order is still not executed, whether continue to pursue the latest price.
4, the price limit When the order signal appears, it happens to be the limit price. Whether should to queue up the price.
5, set bidding Do we need to participate in the market opening stage, how to participate.
6, night-time market Some commodity futures varieties are from 21:00 to 02:30 the next day and all crypto trading are 27/7. Do we need participate these time period. Manually or automatically?
7, Major holidays Before a long holiday, do we need clear all position or reduce some of them.

Extreme market situation

1, Short-term price fluctuations The price of the price suddenly huge rises and falls (black swan situation) etc., how to deal with these situations (as shown in the figure, the Swiss franc black swan event).
2, Liquidity risk If the other side of trading direction order depth does not have the amount you want to execute, but you need to execute immediately. especially if the non-main commodity future contract is very rare, it is easy to make a price jump to the market. How to deal with it when the price slippage is large.
3, Variety trading rules change Commodity futures varieties are added to the night-time market and the crypto trading is 24/7. the margin ratio is raised, and the commission fee is raised, especially the short-term trading strategy, which is very sensitive to these changes.
4, Trading environment risk For example: sudden power failure, network disconnection, computer failure, software downtime, suspension of bank transfer, natural disasters, etc., how to deal with it when it occurs.
In the above case, the probability of occurrence is small, or almost impossible. But if things can happen, it will happen. It is very necessary to make these assumptions and prevent them.

Psychological construction

The three main psychological emotions commonly in trading are greed, fear and lucky. Investors need a strong trading psychology system to control and even use the above three emotions at different stages.

https://preview.redd.it/d0px773ft3s41.png?width=804&format=png&auto=webp&s=e073070345acf1e0727b9c47fc3543ecb2e7ad9b
There must be an overall expectation for the future before you placing an order, including market expectations and variety psychological expectations. Market expectations have a clearer target for the location and future direction of the market. Variety expectations refer to the trading opportunities and risk profiles of the variety at its current location. Without the above psychological foundation, nothing can be done.
The whole process of real market trading is the process of continuous analysis, correction and execution. During the trading period, there are not many transactions, and more is tracking and endurance. This is a process of comprehensively examining the state of mind and testing human nature. The various habits of traders will be revealed and enlarged during the transaction process. Only by continuously learning and summarizing lessons after lessons, can we overcome the commonalities and psychological weaknesses of human nature.

To sum up

In summary, the so-called trading strategy is actually like this. When it has its perfect side and when it is incomplete, we can measure whether a trading strategy is reasonable. We can’t just look at his perfect side, and can’t just look at his broken side. On the one hand, it is more important to analyze the integrity of the strategy.
Finally, according to the characteristics of the strategy, combined with trader's own personality and financial situation to measure whether the strategy is suitable for themselves, if it is suitable for themselves, it is necessary to fully assess how likely it is to persist, the worst results must be planned in advance, if the most You have thought about the miserable side happens, you still can take it, then the possibility of implementation is relatively large.
Remember, in trading, confidence comes from your inner recognition, and confidence comes from the right trading philosophy!

Next section notice

This article is the last one of the first chapter. In the next chapter, we will focus on quantitative trading tools for further explanation, including: a comprehensive introduction to quantitative tools, how to configure quantitative trading systems, common API explanations, and how to quantify a trading systems. Write a strategy on it.
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BitOffer Institute: How Do I Earn My Money back after Bitcoin Plunged?

BitOffer Institute: How Do I Earn My Money back after Bitcoin Plunged?

https://preview.redd.it/mikoittpren41.png?width=1630&format=png&auto=webp&s=3200f70c811edae1fd7d5b1e4e2eec83cfb7bbcd
Influenced by COVID-19, the Bitcoin price plunged by $5,000 within 2 weeks. As it dropped from $9,000 to $3,800, it created the worst daily decline in 7 years. While the market liquidated almost all the longs positions, it triggered a chain reaction that the market had panic emotions surrounded, and the Bitcoin price was frustrated. Besides, the worldwide stock markets all experienced a huge decline, and even the gold market was not able to be immune from it. After the multiple declines, the assets of global investors shrank.
The decline told us a simple sense that the market is full of risks. Even you held Bitcoins in your pocket, it once lost more than 50% value in the short-term, let alone the Bitcoin futures contracts. If you used to trade standard contracts on Huobi Global or BitMEX, whether you opened positions or not, the value of your account would lose as the token price dropped.
Overall, in this case, the market usually liquidates the longs and shorts at the same time while you leverage your trading. When the market fluctuates, closing orders on Huobi Global and OKEx was disabled due to the system lag was serious. At last, all you can do is to pray and wait for the liquidation to your positions since it is obvious that the risk of futures trading is extremely high.
When the situations get serious and extreme like what we experienced last week, futures trading is definitely not fit to trade because whether you belong to the longs or shorts, with a highly additional leverage on your futures contracts, your positions are likely to be liquidated after the market fluctuates. To become the winners on the market, it seems that options trading grabs a victory in the battle between futures trading and itself. The most significant feature of the options trading is that it has an inherent 2,000 times leverage, but it does not have any risk of being forced into liquidation. The investors who trade Bitcoin Options do not have to pay attention to the market all the time. With the feature above, the mentality will be hard to be influenced, so that it will be much easier to make correct choices and strategies.

https://preview.redd.it/o8ib7n0sren41.png?width=783&format=png&auto=webp&s=016f39d284881c8d90ef0f1c4f9fb43a27822e9a
How Do I Earn My Money back with a Low-budget after Bitcoin plunged?
After the decline, most investors are considering the same question: How do I earn my money back with the rest of the funds? COVID-19 influence on the global market still exists. In other words, market fluctuation will be presented again. In this case, Bitcoin Options becomes a unique choice. Bitcoin Options launched by BitOffer requests 0 fees, 0 margins, and no exercise, and supports the time length in 7-days, 1-day, 12-hours, 4-hours, 1-hour, 5-mins and 2-mins.
What is Bitcoin Options?
Bitcoin Options is a prediction of the movement of Bitcoins in the future. Essentially, it operates like the spot trading, but it allows the investors to buy call or put: Call when the investors expect the market to be bullish, Put when the investors expect the market to be bearish. Its profit formula is the same as that of the spot trading: Within the Options contract period, the investors would earn the price spread if the investors choose the correct direction. In short, BitOffer Bitcoin Options allows the investors to use a small budget to bet the change of the Bitcoins in the future and earn a considerable profit.
Takes the market last week as the example, the Bitcoin price plunged by $5,000, if you bought a 7-days put options contract, you would directly earn $5,000 with a budget which is less than $200. The rate of return was more than 2,500%. When the market was experiencing a serious decline, it dropped by $1,500 in an hour. If you bought a 1-hour put options contract with a budget of $20, you would directly earn $1,500, and the rate of return would reach 7,500%.

https://preview.redd.it/2btm09ltren41.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=23463d973c95387b0a8b155be05eb79ad7503bf7
How do I trade Bitcoin Options?
For example, the Bitcoin price now is $10,000, and you hold the view that the Bitcoin price will rise in an hour, then you buy a 1-hour call options contract with $20. After then, the Bitcoin price rises by $1,000 in an hour, you will earn $1,000 as profit when the contract settled, which means that you will earn a 50 times payoff as a return.
If the Bitcoin price drops in an hour, you would only lose the premium $20 that you buy the options contract. It is obvious that Bitcoin Options owns the advantage of “Unlimited profit buy limited loss”. Compared with futures trading, if you predict the wrong direction of the Bitcoin market and do not stop loss in time, it might cause your positions to be liquidated and lose money. Thus, Bitcoin Options fits almost all investors.
Click here to start knowing BitOffer Bitcoin Options: https://www.bitoffer.com
submitted by Bitoffer_Official to BitOffer_Official [link] [comments]

Review: The most thrilling 24 hours in Bitcoin history

From 12:00 on March 12th to 12:00 on the 13th, Bitcoin, the most influential currency in the cryptocurrency industry, suffered two major declines, and its price fell from a maximum of 7,672 USD to a minimum of 3,800 USD (data from Huobi, the next Same), the decline was 50.4%, which means that the price of Bitcoin has achieved a fairly accurate "half price" in these 24 hours.
Previously, Bitcoin's "halving market" was mostly considered to be an increase in market prices caused by Bitcoin's halving production, although many people have questioned the "halving market" as " The price is halved ", but when bitcoin walks out of the current bad market, it still surprises most investors.
First plunge
The bad 24 hours started at 12 o'clock on March 12. Due to the rapid spread of the new crown epidemic in Europe and the United States, the global financial markets have been raining for several days. After several adjustments, the price of Bitcoin has hovered up and down within the range of $ 7600-8200 in the previous three days. However, after 12 o'clock on the 12th, Bitcoin The price fell below $ 7,600 for the first time, breaking the psychological expectations of many investors, entering a rapid decline channel, and dropping to about $ 7,200 at around 18 o'clock.
At this time, the decline of Bitcoin is still around 7%, which is a common occurrence in the history of Bitcoin. However, after 18 o'clock that day, the market turned sharply, and the price of bitcoin plunged again in a short period of time. It fell to US $ 5,555 within tens of minutes, a drop of 28%, and the amount of contractual positions on each platform exceeded US $ 2 billion.
During the decline, most major exchanges such as Huobi, Binance, and OKEx experienced systemic freezes of varying degrees. Many users complained for a long time that the exchange app could not properly display the homepage, market page, and transaction page, and added positions, stops, and withdrawals. Obstacles such as cash withdrawal and cash withdrawal operations have also shown that this situation also highlights that mainstream exchanges still fail to address the ability of their trading systems to respond to extreme conditions.
For this decline, the collective sell-off of large Bitcoin holders is considered to be the main reason. For example, Grayscale Investment, the world's largest crypto asset fund management company, was sold and sold 40,000-50,000 Bitcoins. News from the exchange said that Bitcoin sold 400,000.
For a long time, bitcoin has been called "digital gold" by the blockchain industry, and has good risk aversion properties. During the tense situation between the United States and Iran in January this year and the global stock market fell, Bitcoin rose from $ 7,200 all the way to more than $ 10,000. Bitcoin's safe-haven attributes have been widely recognized in history, but this time caused by the new crown epidemic Under the risk of the global economic downturn, the decline in the price of bitcoin has become the asset with the largest depreciation among various mainstream financial assets, and its high-risk nature will most likely collapse.
Some analysts believe that bitcoin should be further classified as an alternative asset. At a time when liquidity shortage is extremely serious, as a high-risk alternative investment asset with the highest volatility in the world, funds will naturally be drawn from the market by investors. Looking for safer, more liquid assets, prices plummet.
"Everyone in the future will realize that Bitcoin is not digital gold, but" an amplifier of risk. " Its value cannot be anchored. Unlike other asset prices, which are affected by costs and prices, Bitcoin has no normal market value range. As of now, it does not have any convincing valuation basis, more like a swaying boat. Without the anchor, its value fluctuates greatly, and the impact of halving the market and supply and demand on it is far less important than psychological factors. "Said Cai Kailong, senior researcher at the Institute of Financial Technology of Renmin University of China.
However, some people in the industry hold different opinions. "BTC is still the most powerful currency in the history of mankind. It provides liquidity 24 hours a day. This is something that other markets simply can't imagine, but because liquidity is too good, this time it just happened to happen in other markets. When funds are scarce, the first choice for selling supplementary funds has also led to the decline of gold. Of course, the amount of BTC that is currently much lower than gold is certainly unstoppable in a short period of time. "A Weibo blogger" "fhrp".
In addition to the sell-off of large institutions, some mortgage lending platforms have also passively become an important boost for this downturn. In the past six months, the Defi concept has been particularly hot in the blockchain industry, and many cryptocurrency-based cryptocurrency lending platforms were born.
As a result, a large number of large Bitcoin users will pledge the Bitcoin in their accounts to third-party lending platforms and use the USDT to borrow cash to purchase cash, which is equivalent to increasing leverage. However, these platforms are not mature in terms of mortgage rate setting and liquidation mechanisms. Users who increase the mortgage rate of assets have a slower transfer speed on the chain. As a result, during this period of rapid decline in the market, a large number of mortgage orders have lower mortgage assets than loans. As a result, the amount of bitcoin out-of-market positions this time was far more than in the previous period of large market volatility, which further exacerbated the selling pressure of the bitcoin spot market.
From 19:00 on the 12th to the early morning of the 13th, the price of Bitcoin hovered in the range of 5800-6200 US dollars, and the market began to prepare for the next stage of the trend.
Second plunge
On the evening of the 12th, the stock markets of mainstream countries in Europe and the United States successively opened and collectively fell, and the stock markets of at least 11 countries, such as the United States, Canada, and the Philippines, melted down. At the close of the morning on the 13th, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S & P 500 Index had the largest single-day percentage decline since the 1987 stock disaster. The Dow closed down about 2352 points, the largest drop in history.
The bad performance of the stock market quickly passed to the currency market. Beginning at 7 o'clock on the 13th, the price of bitcoin plunged from the position of $ 5,800 once again, dropping all the way, and successively fell below $ 5,000 and $ 4,000.
For the rapid decline of the market, many people in the industry believe that the main factor is not only the panic selling of the market, but also the mutual stepping on of contract investors. Weibo blogger "AlbertTheKing" pointed out that most of the long positions in Bitcoin leverage are in the BitMEX perpetual contract market. The long positions caused by the decline in bitcoin prices caused a series of short positions, which in turn caused arbitrage spreads and spot arbitrage. The party rushed in to open multiple orders and sell spot arbitrage at the same time, thinking it was okay. As a result, I did not expect Bitcoin to fall more and more fiercely, and his own arbitrage and long positions also burst. So at first, the leveraged bulls stepped down on each other, and later became the arbitrage party. .
"Fhrp" also pointed out that because BitMEX only has BTC margin, ETH's permanent liquidation also needs to be undertaken by btc. The profit portion of the hedge order cannot be included in the margin, and BTC is not sufficient because of the card being in serious shortage. The exploding warehouse order was opaque, so that no one dared to pick up the corpse later, fearing that it would become a corpse. Of course, the key is the lack of a fusing system, so that the market can slowly wait for liquidity to keep up.
Under the interweaving of many risks, the price of bitcoin is about 10:15. It has fallen below 3,800 US dollars in many exchanges such as Huobi and OKEx, which is 38% lower than the price of 0 on the day and 50.4% lower than 24 hours ago. This is the highest record in the 24-hour drop since the birth of Bitcoin.
Such a precise decline cannot be doubted as the bad taste of the bookmaker behind the exchange, if the bookmaker does exist. Of course, it is not excluded that this situation is due to the tacit understanding among the main market participants, or a purely natural phenomenon.
But judging from objective facts, there is indeed some evidence that the situation is unnatural. After bitcoin hit a low of $ 3,800, its price quickly rose in the next 20 minutes, rising by 59% to $ 5,250, but then fell rapidly. At the turning point of $ 3,800, which is 10:16, the BitMEX trading system, the largest bitcoin exchange in the cryptocurrency industry, suddenly stopped until 10:40.
It can be seen that the time point when the Bitcoin price stopped falling rapidly and stopped rising rapidly was close to the time point when BitMEX went down and returned to normal. This shows that BitMEX has a huge influence on the secondary market, and it also makes a lot of One suspects BitMEX is manipulating the market.
Sam Bankman-Fried, chief executive of Derivatives Exchange FTX, tweeted that he suspects BitMEX may have intentionally closed transactions to prevent further crashes and to avoid using exchange insurance funds. Mining company BitPico also tweeted yesterday, "According to our analysis, BitMEX Research has closed its long position of $ 993 million with its own robots and capital. Today the manipulation of the bitcoin market is caused by an entity and the investigation is ongoing. "
In response to this incident, BitMEX responded that there was a hardware problem with the cloud service provider, and in a subsequent announcement, it was pointed out that the DDoS attack was the real cause of the short-term downtime.
Why the downtime of the BitMEX trading system is difficult to verify, but from its objective impact, its short-term downtime plays a vital role in curbing the further decline in the price of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, which has eased investment to a certain extent. The panic sentiment created by this has created space for the rebound and correction of cryptocurrency prices such as Bitcoin.
Sam Bankman-Fried even speculated that if BitMEX did not go offline because of a "hardware problem" this morning (February 13), the price of Bitcoin could fall to zero.
If compared with the traditional financial market, the effect of this BitMEX outage event is quite similar to the "fuse" mechanism of the stock market. Trading is suspended for dozens of minutes at the moment when investor sentiment is most panic, so this outage event Also aroused the emotions of many people in the industry.
"BitMEX has helped the currency circle" melt out, "otherwise the chainless stepping will not know where to fall. After the fuse, everyone calmed down and the market returned to normal. Weibo blogger "Blockchain William" posted a blog saying, "The market is not afraid of falling, and it is not afraid of stepping on it. That is why. This is why the global stock market has melted down because investors panic. It is a bottomless pit. Once out of control, there is no bottom Now. "
Of course, the factors that cause the market situation to reverse are not limited to this. According to the feedback from multiple users on social platforms, BitMEX and Binance's major exchanges forced the short positions of multiple accounts to close positions at 10 o'clock on March 13th, that is, the automatic lightening mechanism was in effect.
According to the BitMEX platform mechanism, when investor contracts are forced to close out, their remaining positions will be taken over by BitMEX's strong closing system. However, if a strong liquidation position cannot be closed in the market, and when the marked price reaches the bankruptcy price, the automatic lightening system will lighten the investor holding the position in the opposite direction, and the order of lightening is determined according to the leverage and profit ratio .
Specifically, due to the sharp fluctuations in the price of bitcoin, a large number of long single-series bursts and the scarcity of market liquidity. In order to control the risk, the platform will automatically place some short orders with high profit ratios and high leverage on the market, increasing market flow. It also avoids the risk to the platform caused by the inability of the short-selling order to be executed in a timely manner.
According to BitMEX's announcement, about 200 positions were automatically closed by the system. And Twitter blogger Edward Morra said, "On BitMEX alone, short positions worth about $ 500 million have been liquidated." If this data is true, it means that BitMEX's strong liquidation operation has brought more than 5 to the contract market. The market price of 100 million US dollars has a significant positive effect on the market that is being sold out.
However, as a compensation, BitMEX also stated that it would contact each damaged user and compensate them according to the maximum potential profit that the investor obtained during the automatic liquidation.
In any case, through the operation of exchanges such as BitMEX, the price of bitcoin has entered a recovery channel, and it is still hovering at the $ 5,000 mark, while driving the entire cryptocurrency market to pick up.
After this thrilling 24 hours of bitcoin, the ideal "halving market" has disappeared. The real and brutal "halving market" is coming. Perhaps many investors and investment institutions have expressed their confidence in the crypto assets represented by bitcoin. The understanding will change in this regard, and the confidence of the entire industry needs to be rebuilt. This depends on the application value of bitcoin to be deepened.
submitted by FmzQuant to u/FmzQuant [link] [comments]

How to earn Bitcoin at the lowest cost? RHY cloud mining is one of the best ways

How to earn Bitcoin at the lowest cost? RHY cloud mining is one of the best ways
Since the new year, the global situation and favorable conditions have continued. This has also been followed by the currency circle. The currency price has continued to rise, once again hitting the US $ 10,000 mark, which is a cumulative increase of nearly 220% from last year's low of US $ 3,416. At present, Bitcoin's circulating market value exceeds 1.15 trillion U.S. dollars, and the 24-hour trading volume exceeds 65 billion, which has far exceeded the highest trading volume during the bull market in 2017. In June of this year, the output was halved. Under this halving market, although it is still unclear, investors are more optimistic about the trend of the market currency price. There are currently two types of mainstream BTC methods: buying coins and mining, of course, two Each method has its own advantages and disadvantages. So which way can I get Bitcoin at the lowest cost?
Many people will say that they are buying coins, but the shortcomings of buying coins are also very obvious. Generally, investors will be disgusted with the loss, resulting in unwillingness to buy in the downturn. Therefore, this requires investors to be able to tolerate short-term currency prices, even in the Buy currency even if the price of the currency drops. But humans are not machines and cannot control and avoid emotions that affect investment behavior. Just like people who buy real estate in China tend to chase after rising prices, they are reluctant to buy when prices fall.
There is also a short-sightedness. The long-term is made short-term, and it is sold as soon as it rises. Many investors always make the long-term short-term. When it comes to rising prices, it is easy to feel that you have already made a profit, and you want to sell it, or you want to sell it and wait for the decline before buying it back. Most of these results are due to small losses and short-term long-term markets, so you buy coins. Not very suitable for most ordinary people without professional knowledge.

https://preview.redd.it/hit8n06g0nm41.jpg?width=415&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dde1434baf30cceedf547f07f79907054a87a9ee
Mining, especially cloud computing mining, is the method suitable for most ordinary investors. Mining is an excellent choice. In order for the BTC network to operate safely, an average of 12.5 BTC will be generated every 10 minutes as a reward to miners. As a miner, as long as the mined BTC can cover the cost of the mining investment and have sufficient profits, then there is a reason to continue mining BTC. Under this incentive mechanism, the average cost of a BTC mined by many miners is lower than the market price. In popular terms, it can get the ex-factory price of BTC. And mining is also considered to be better than buying coins directly. In addition to cost advantages, investment mining has the following advantages:
From the logic of coin storage, mining is inherently long-term and mandatory.
Once the mining is started, the depreciation and electricity charges of the miner at this moment are used to deposit coins at a fixed investment, and the cycle is relatively long. One investment usually takes one to two years, which is in line with the logic of BTC long-term investment. And compared to buying coins directly, miners are much less sensitive to the cost of mining, and are less susceptible to the effects of short-term currency price fluctuations, which reduces the irrational chase and kills from the side, which ultimately leads to trapping.

Whether a bear market is a bull market, cost recovery is profit

Even in the case of long-term stable or even low currency prices, as long as the mining machine is operating normally, once the cost is recovered, it will enter the stage of almost zero-cost coin storage. Compared with the fixed investment, the market must rise to be profitable. Advantage.

Difficulties in mining: site leasing, mining machine purchase, unstable electricity, high electricity bills

First of all, it is necessary to lease a suitable site before mining, because the noise of the mining machine operation is extremely large, and the operation of residential areas is prone to cause complaints. Secondly, the computing power of a single mining machine has very little block reward. It needs to form a scale to obtain a large number of block rewards. A large number of mining machines require a large amount of capital investment.
The voltage in residential areas is extremely unstable, with large power consumption in summer and winter, and large-scale power outages often occur. Once power outages, the damage to machinery and equipment will be huge, and all mining machine power operations will be damaged. In addition, the electricity bill in residential areas is high, and low-cost operation basically does not exist.
Without professional knowledge, it is impossible to master the maintenance and supervision of the mining machine. In the later operation of the mining machine, professional technical maintenance personnel are required to carry out daily maintenance tasks such as supervision, maintenance and upgrade of the mining machine, so the owner of the mining machine needs to have a lot of professional knowledge. .
Because of the above problems, most people who do not have the funds or do not know the professional knowledge are still out of the mining investment, and those who enter the market have even become "leeks". Therefore, choosing a good cloud computing mining platform can make you a BTC investor and owner, such as https://en.rhy.com/

RHY cloud mining-low-cost mining way to easily mine Bitcoin

Bitcoin mining has gradually reduced the amount of mining, the cloud mining of the entire network has been increasing, and the difficulty of mining is also getting higher and higher. At the same time, the competition in the mining industry is becoming increasingly fierce, and the rapid rise in mining costs has caused more miners to start mining with cloud computing power. RHY cloud mining, as the head platform in the field of cloud computing power mining, has been around the pain points of the traditional mining industry. In the face of ordinary investors and small white mining users, it has launched cloud computing power mining, computing power leasing and mining. The leasing activities of the machine allow the majority of investors to enjoy the feast of the benefits of cloud computing mining during this bitcoin halving period.
submitted by heiwhite to u/heiwhite [link] [comments]

Bitcoin $100k, everyone happy but....

..what's the point of waiting for Bitcoin to reach higher $ numbers when it is difficult or almost useless to use it to buy goods? We say it's a new digital monetary system (digital and virtual money) or store of value and is easy to make transactions but it's difficult to trust it and use it for business purpose.
Look at the charts. It fluctuates and not many merchants would want to accept bitcoin as a payment because of the fear of the price drop. Less hope for it to moon. But what's the point?
I get it, "it's decentralized" and not censored (not controlled by any banks, govs and is free..) but still. How can you guarantee that today I paid for 1 beer, let's say 0.001 btc ($10 or 10 any stable coin) and after 1 month the bar owners sells 0.001 btc for the $10 or 10 any stable coin? We r measuring its worth with dollar or stable/coins and number people considering it as a store of/ or just value.
Today 1 btc can be $10k. Tomorrow it can be $20k. After tomorrow it can also be $5k or $30k.
People easily manipulate the market. The $ value of btc drops or rises, trust of buying and selling with/for bitcoin tightens and fear increases and other emotions involves and you end up hodling it waiting for a hope...
Do you know how many whales hodling from 100 btc to 10,000 btc? Are you so confident they will not sell all of their bitcoins when it reaches higher and end up making people miserable who buys at pick?.. this shit happens unless exchanges offer unlimited buy or sell orders daily per each user.
*******Yes I get it that it won't be fun trading for traders if limit of daily trading (withdraw and deposit) is set in all exchanges/ATMs but...
How can we make the market more stable? How can we "crypto enthusiast" prevent fluctuation? How can we avoid manipulation? How can we ensure that today we buy a beer with bitcoin for $xx and tomorrow that value does not drop TOO LOW or rise TOO HIGH so to use Bitcoin (or other cryptocurrencies) as a fearless and trusted digital/virtual money? . . . I hope this topic turns into conversation and education for some of us but not hatred.
submitted by whatsoncrypto to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

There Lies the Port – Year in Review and Monthly Portfolio Update – December 2019

There lies the port; the vessel puffs her sail: There gloom the dark, broad seas.
- Tennyson, Ulysses
Year in Review
This year began with a review of my portfolio goals, designed to update the financial independence targets to reflect the median and mean average of annual full-time earnings.
The review also introduced a number of personal financial independence benchmarks, such as meeting credit card expenses or an estimate of actual expenditure through assumed average portfolio earnings. In addition, this year introduced reporting progress on an 'All Assets' basis (taking into account superannuation holdings), as well as an immediately accessible portfolio basis.
Destinations closing - The long day wanes
These changes left no less than eight metrics to track and report on. At the beginning of 2019, I had met only two of these eight financial independence measures (Objective #1 and 'Credit card purchases' on an all assets basis).
As 2019 closes, six of the eight measures have been met or exceeded, and by contrast only two remaining outstanding.
These two measures remaining to be met are reaching Objective #2 and a portfolio total that would allow the funding of current expenses from the FI portfolio alone. For both, I close out the year within fairly clear sight of these unmet goals. Progress through the year is summarised below.
Progress against FI measures through 2019
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Objective #1 – $1 598 000 (or $67 000 pa) 83% →111% 116% → 152%
Objective #2 – $1 980 000 (or $83 000 pa) 67% → 90% 93% →123%
Credit card purchases - $73 000 pa 77% →102% 108% → 140%
Total expenses - $89 000 pa 58% → 84% 81% →115%
Every hour a bringer of new things
This calendar year portfolio has experienced the largest expansion to date, significantly outstripping progress through 2017. The overall portfolio has grown around 35 per cent, with the equity component rising from around just over $900 000 to $1.28 million. This has reflected market growth and a focus on purchasing Australian equities through the year.
These sizeable increases in the FI portfolio have meant that significant gaps to my targets at the start of the year have shrunk dramatically. As an example, a year ago when the year started, Objective #2 was in the far distance, with the portfolio around $660 000 away from the target. Currently, it sits within $200 000 of that ambitious goal - a gap which while significant, does not necessary seem unbridgeable given progress so far.
Yet the progress has not been linear, or a smooth course across calm waters. Rather, it has been a year of broadly two different halves. A rapid increase in portfolio value through to June or July, followed by choppy waters and only grudging and halting progress.
[Chart]
The drivers for this overall performance have largely been Australian and global equities, as well as Bitcoin.
Strong equity markets through the first half of the year helped pushed the portfolio equity holdings up by almost 30 per cent, as markets recovered from the volatility and falls of late 2018. From July, however, the movement has been more sideways, despite contributions and an ongoing reinvestment of past distributions. Markets have tested and retested highs with some regularity.
Despite its generally uncorrelated profile of returns, Bitcoin actually exacerbated this dual character of the year. It doubled in value in the first half of the year, going from 4.5 per cent of the portfolio in January to 10.9 per cent in July. Since that time it has drifted downwards, increasing the sense of pushing against headwinds in the second half of the year.
Time and fate - the record of contributions
This year is the first year where all substantial portfolio contributions have been made through exchange traded funds.
This process commenced from May last year, when I ceased regular contributions to Vanguard's Diversified High Growth retail fund that had been made on a fortnightly or monthly basis over seventeen years. Instead, I turned to Vanguard's Australian shares ETF (VAS), Betashares' Australian shares ETF (A200), and more recently Vanguard's International shares ETF (VGS).
This decision was driven by reducing costs, and also the opportunity to move more rapidly to my desired allocation. Its impact can be seen below, which shows that contributions have been fairly evenly split between A200 and VAS, with some smaller contributions to VGS to seek to reach and maintain the current target of 30 per cent of the total portfolio being placed in international equities.
[Chart]
Through the arch of experience
This record is seeking to explore and identify if it is possible for me to make the transition to financial independence. In that context, the achievements of 2019 that seem most important are:
This year has also seen continued pleasing growth in the readership of the blog. Over the past year readership and visitors have more than doubled, to levels that feel slightly difficult to comprehend for a blog focused on a single personal journey, and applying some finance theory and evidence to investment. Receiving over 100 000 views from more than 40 000 visitors since commencing is both humbling and a tremendous motivation to keep writing.
Waiting on time and fate
As with each year during this holiday break, I have been reviewing my investment policy and looking at possible new goals. I have also been updating and stress-testing my plans, assumptions and asset allocations.
As previously, before finalising these in a new post in coming days, I want to fully understand the shape and level of fund and ETF distributions arising from the past six months. This means waiting until all December distributions are finalised or announced. I am looking forward to sharing these updated plans - including possibly new portfolio objectives - in the next week or so.
You can’t go back and change the beginning, but you can start where you are and change the ending.
- C.S. Lewis
Monthly Portfolio Update - December 2019
This is my thirty-seventh portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goals.
Portfolio goals
My objectives have been to reach a portfolio of:
Both of these are based on an expected average real return of 4.19 per cent, or a nominal return of 7.19 per cent, and are expressed in 2018 dollars.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $797 016
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $45 124
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $81 635
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $108 591
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $160 304
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $33 337
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $262 478
Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 886
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $9 705
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $7 584
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $99 178
Secured physical gold – $16 035
Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $15 778
Bitcoin – $116 300
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $17 476
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 406
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 425
Total portfolio value: $1 779 258 (-$14 495)
Asset allocation Australian shares – 43.2% (1.8% under)
Global shares – 23.3%
Emerging markets shares – 2.4%
International small companies – 3.2%
Total international shares – 28.9% (1.1% under)
Total shares – 72.1% (2.9% under)
Total property securities – 0.2% (0.2% over)
Australian bonds – 4.7%
International bonds – 9.8%
Total bonds – 14.6% (0.4% under)
Gold – 6.5%
Bitcoin – 6.5%
Gold and alternatives – 13.0% (3.0% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
[Chart]
Comments
This month the value of the portfolio fell slightly - by around $14 000 in total - following a three month expansion.
[Chart]
Across the portfolio there was mostly a story of stability, excepting small falls in some Australian equities and bonds. The significant exception was as mentioned above a continued fall in Bitcoin, which has fallen $70 000 since July, marking a significant headwind for the portfolio.
[Chart]
This month contributions were evenly split between Vanguard Australian shares and global shares ETFs (VAS and VGS), to seek to maintain the target asset allocation split. With the slow withdrawal from Ratesetter as loans are repaid, the bond element of the portfolio continues to drift below the allocation, and it may need to be addressed in future months.
Balancing the load
This month has also seen the portfolio the closest it has ever been to the target asset allocation. That is, the level of variation between where the investment assets are allocated, and where there should be based on the plan, is the lowest it has ever been. This has been a long journey with many missteps in retrospect.
These have included short periods in which nearly 30 per cent of assets were invested in bonds, and times in which cash made up to 15 per cent of the portfolio (at the commencement of a 10 year period of growth in equities).
This journey is illustrated in the chart below.
[Chart]
A few features stand out in this chart.
Firstly, a recent rise in share exposure, and contraction in bond allocations. A second feature is the gradual elimination of any cash forming part of the portfolio. Finally, Bitcoin makes a late appearance and enjoys a short flowering period in early 2018, to fade back to part of a generally more diversified and growth-orientated portfolio.
This has occurred during a period of generally strong and consistent calendar year growth since 2007. This can be seen from the updated chart below (with dates from the commencement of this record in green).
[Chart]
Progress
Progress against the objectives, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Objective #1 – $1 598 000 (or $67 000 pa) 111.3% 152.3%
Objective #2 – $1 980 000 (or $83 000 pa) 89.9% 122.9%
Credit card purchases - $73 000 pa 102.2% 139.8%
Total expenses - $89 000 pa 83.8% 114.7%
Summary
The start of this new year marks three years of this record. As I review the progress of the month, year and record together what is striking is the gradual transition from directly controlling investing progress through individual decisions, to progress itself becoming a loose and nearly random variable.
Part of what is happening in the near doubling of the portfolio is that market fluctuations take a greater role. But another part is distinctly psychological, and is well described in this Of Dollars and Data post, which analyses the concept of the gradual receding importances of some types of decisions, as overall wealth increases over a life journey.
For these decisions, over time, there is a need to balance the concept of 'rational ignorance' (not expending attention on perfectly optimising and analysing what will have a marginal impact) with the risk of picking up wasteful habits through poor decisions.
A more pervasive psychological challenge likely to be faced in coming weeks is buying at market highs. The year just passed has been a rare one of strong performance of both US bond and equities, and safer assets.
Data such as this interactive analysis can help bring light to these decisions - showing that historically returns from periods of 'all time highs' are statistically indistinguishable from any other periods. Put simply, the uneasy feeling of investing as indexes hit their peaks is, at least on past data, unjustified in terms of the actual future returns that tend to eventuate.
This kind of finding should serve as a reminder. Past choices and markets are closed to us, all we can do is start where we find ourselves and take the best action we can to shape the ending.
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

Market Analysis on April 22, 2020: Dash Is Expected to Have A Reductions on April 27

Market Analysis on April 22, 2020: Dash Is Expected to Have A Reductions on April 27
[Today's Hot Tips]
1. [Dash is expected to have a reductions on April 27]
Dash is expected to have a reductions at the block height of 1261440 on April 27. After the reductions, the block reward of Dash will be reduced by about 7.14%, and the block reward will be reduced from 3.11 Dash to 2.89 Dash.
2. [The miners' first selling volume soared]
In the process of market fermentation, there will always be some clearly visible trading signals. In this BTC callback phase, different trading signals indicate that the adjustment is not over. The short-term rapid growth of the latest miner's first selling volume indicator may be a signal of the advent of the waterfall market. After all, the increase in miners' selling volume indicates that the increase in mining costs has forced them to do so. The increase in miners' selling volume has triggered an increase in the supply side of BTC and will also guide the price decline.
3.【Tether company adds 120 million USDT in banknote printing
Tether company adds $ 120 million USDT in banknote printing
4. [The Dutch Central Bank hopes to play a leading role in the development of digital currency]
According to the news from Decrypt on April 21, the Dutch Central Bank issued a report saying that it was "ready to play a leading role in the development of CBDC." The bank said CBDC may play an important role as the country's cash usage decreases. The bank also said that CBDC can also promote the diversification of the payment market.
[Today's market analysis]
Bitcoin (BTC)

https://preview.redd.it/jcc067engbu41.png?width=821&format=png&auto=webp&s=82f1ff552792d4e7effaf4c7dcf20effb825c101
BTC quickly pulled up after falling at about 1 o'clock today, hitting its intraday low of 6808 UDST and intraday high of 6940 USDT within 10 minutes, and then fell back slightly, currently below 6900 USDT. Mainstream currencies rose slightly within the day. BTC is currently reported at 6873.40 USDT on LOEx Global, with a rise of 0.55% in 24h.
Peripheral US crude oil plummeted to a negative number, while US stocks fell about 3% last night. The market of Bitcoin yesterday was dominated by callback lows. First, it fell sharply in the early hours and continued to draw closer to the lower support point of 6750, and finally did not break it. It ushered in the first round of rebound and returned to shock at 6850 line; With the continuation of the shock market, the bearish forces continue to try to force the market to step down again, and then ushered in the second round of rebound when running to 6760, and returned to the shock around 6850 again.
In the daily chart, the K line closed shade line for three consecutive days. Yesterday, a large shade line successfully pulled the currency price below the moving average to shock, and the bearish mood was strong; Today, the market is gradually coming out of the low position, constantly trying to return to its upper continue to run; The five-day moving average and the ten-day moving average still maintain a gentle posture. If the currency price can break the upward trend as expected, and stabilize the fluctuation above it, and it is expected to sprint to run above 7000 again; but space is limited, it is appropriate to lighten up positions.
At the same time, this callback and rebound will cause emotional instability. If today's decadence is not correct, the volume and price will not be collected. If the Doji has been kept closed for in the day, the market will still look down.
In the four-hour level chart, the Bollinger Bands close, and the market is running in the middle and lower rail areas of the Bollinger Bands, which is now located at 6891; The five-day moving average is running smoothly, and the market has now stabilized to run above it; while the upper 60-day moving average is the current short-term maximum resistance level.
Operation suggestions:
Support level: the first support level is 6750 points, the second support level is 6700 integers;
Resistance level: the first resistance level is 7050 points, the second resistance level is 7100 points.
LOEx is registered in Seychelles. It is a global one-stop digital asset service platform with business distribution nodes in 20 regions around the world. It has been exempted from Seychelles and Singapore Monetary Authority (MAS) digital currency trading services. Provide services and secure encrypted digital currency trading environment for 1 million community members in 24 hours.
submitted by LOEXCHANGE to u/LOEXCHANGE [link] [comments]

I've been in since May 2017, lessons learned, and some real talk.

I've only been in the crypto game since mid 2017. I remember back then when I was assessing the market, BTC was below $1k a few months earlier, LTC was around $4 that January and by the time I finally got in BTC had more than doubled to around $2,500 and LTC was $30. I thought ETH and XRP (and everything else) were just shitcoins because I didn't know shit and I just listened to the herd (Back then the argument was "Bitcoin is digital gold and LTC is digital silver and everything else is a scam.") Now, I'm pretty invested in several coins, because this market is anything but rational.
Screw off if you think otherwise. Try to think logically in this market, and you're going to get smacked in the face.
After exchanging my first fiat for crypto, in the next couple of months the market "crashed" and I was fearful. By crashed, I mean BTC went from $2,800 to $1,800. I just decided to let my cryptos ride. I pretended that money was gone, but I'd check prices every day for whatever damn reason.
I wasn't even putting that much in. Hell, I would spend more eating out and going to the bars every weekend with friends or work colleagues than I was dropping into BTC. It was pretty common that I'd drop $100 a night on sushi, beers, and Sake Bombs. But, when money you could get back loses value, it makes you feel dumb for putting money in. Logic is out the window when I can't get that $100 back from my sushi and drink purchases, but my crypto dropped 30% that week, so I was dumb for investing in crypto but not for my $500+ per month on eating out and drinking with friends.
Several weeks later, I was back to even on my crypto investments. Well shit, that was fast. Then I was suddenly up 25%. "Fuck it, I'm just putting money in. I'm not missing out."
By the the winter of 2017, I was up over 10x with my crypto speculation. My initial LTC went from $30 to over $350; my BTC went from $2,500 to $20,000. I also just threw $300-$1,000 here and there on random sub-200 market cap coins only to see them 6x in a few weeks.
I remember thinking how stupid I was for not buying during that dip down to $1,800, but how good of an investor I was because my gains. What a fucking dope I was.
I was sitting there looking at my account on December 10th, 2017. I was about to sell because I could have paid off my car and 50% of my student loans. I wasn't even using my car because I was in another country traveling.
"Nah, I can't sell. This is just the beginning; let's wait until I can pay off all my student loans" my delusional self said.
I never cashed out. I remember sitting there with a dude who had his GDAX account open after BTC "crashed" from $20k to $13k two weeks later. We just got back from surfing.
He was still sitting at $250,000 in his account and was nervous as shit. "What should I do?" he asked rhetorically. Then immediately answered himself, "It will rebound," he said, "it always does." This guy had been through the MTGOX hack and gave me plenty of advice while we surfed.
And I listened as if he was prophetic.
What a fucking dope I was.
When hopium is in the air, we all get irrational.
I still wonder about that guy and his cryptos. He went north back home for the Christmas holiday, while I headed south for more traveling, and I've never seen him again.
February 2018 was both euphoric and scary as shit. "Holy shit! BTC is under $10k I never thought it would be down here again. But it could keep dropping. But it was just $20k a month ago."
I was skeptical that it wouldn't keep dropping so I waited. Then, I didn't want to miss out. BTC was making a run from $6,500 up to testing $10k. "If it breaks $10k, I'm getting back in."
A short time later, it did break $10k, only to be hit a wall at $12k, then again...then, the inevitable crash to $6,200 happened where it fluctuated in August - November of 2018 up until, what, November 10th-ish when BCH shitfork shat out and then BTC-Shit-Vision and BTC-LMNOP started paying miners to mine their forked fork of BTC and everyone shat themselves as the market tanked yet again.
That was it for me. That was the day I stopped caring. I remember thinking how stupid I was to invest so much time in this.
You can't predict this shit.
I didn't regret investing in crypto, I regret all the time spent looking at my portfolio, trying to time the market, pretending I was some guru in my head because I threw $300 at POE when it was less than a penny and weeks later it was selling for $0.21 and could buy another trip to whatever country I wanted.
Sure, you can use TA to see what support or resistance is there, but it's still a 50-50 chance whether Fake Satoshi is going to spoof trade or some rando is going to drop three 7,000 BTC market buys to break through resistance.
So, what did I learn through this whole experience?
Other than what I've already stated (You have no way to predict whether it's breaking through resistance or crashing through support).
I just remember the main thing that has persisted this last two years. "I wish I could go back in time to when BTC was around $3,000 and LTC was $30."
When BTC dropped below, $4k that was heaven. I never thought it would get back to when I was buying when I first got into the market in 2017.
So, I bought, and I bought hard.
This time around, I have strong buy strategies and sell strategies.
They are set; no question.
For me, I'm not selling until two weeks before the LTC halving in August.
Even then, I'm only selling my LTC for BTC. Then I'll sell 25% of my BTC for fiat 2 weeks before the BTC halving in 2020.
I will never have less than my preferred number of BTC's, ETH's, LTC's and a few others.
Don't follow my advice here, I'm just saying I know what I want and what my strategy is.
You need to have a strategy to buy and strategy to sell. Be reasonable. I previously had a "strategy." It was once I could pay off my student loans with all of my crypto gains minus taxes, I would sell. Yeah, well, looking back if I would have just sold when could pay off my car and 50% of my student loans, I would have been able to invest even more when BTC was down in $3,xxx range and LTC was $22-$35, etc from December 2018 through March 2019.
DCAing is the way to go. No question. You don't need to do TA, you don't need to check your portfolio, you don't need to do shit but either 1) setup an automatic buy order with your exchange or 2) login and buy whatever you want.
You have your buy strategy (DCA at x interval) and you have your sell strategy.
Figure it out. Don't pretend you're gonna time the market. Don't pretend you're some guru.
Those people, like me, learn the hard way.
No TA, no waiting for google searches of BTC to increase, no waiting for BAKKT, no waiting for Faktoshi to shut the fuck up.
Before November 2018, I would only throw money when BTC was on a run. "Oh, we're finally on the way up. It's time to buy!" Like when it went from $2,800 up to $6,200 in the summer 2017, then from $10k to $20k in late 2017. Or when it went from $6,200 back up to $10,000 then to $11,900 in February of 2018.
I would think I could time the market. What a pathetic loser, right?
Some people grow up in this market like the cable version of themselves only to transition to the directv version. Listen to us dopes that have been there and done that.
Learn from our mistakes, but also don't think that we have all the damn answers.
Anyone that comes in here acting like the 2nd coming of Craig Wright's dumpster twin, you can be rest assured they are as delusional as Justin Sun. The problem is, even if they are delusional, this market is anything but rational, so they might just be proven right enough for you to think you should follow their advice.
This shit is crazy. Stop acting like you've got it figured out.
Nobody does, but it feels good to have confidence in this random speculation, right?
I'm here to tell you this. My life has drastically improved since November 2018 when I started viewing Crypto investments like a bill. Every two weeks, I would send money from my paycheck to my exchange. Then, I'd buy a certain amount every single week after it had cleared.
That money, is all but "gone." It was a "bill" I paid.
When the market is going down, I send more fiat and I buy more crypto. When it is rising, I still buy, but not as much; I pull back. You may say I'm trying to catch a falling knife. I just learned that the way I was investing before was bad practice. I'd rather people think I'm trying to catch a falling knife than to feel that FOMO and only buy when the market is up.
Right now for example, I'm not buying this week. Not because I think I know what hell is going to happen, but because it's my strategy to not chase a run, and to spend more when it drops.
I'll wait until next weekend and see what the market is doing.
What happens in between now and next weekend, I don't give a shit.
Could I miss out on another run? Sure, but I don't give a shit. Maybe it's because I'm 2 years in and I've seen this shit before, or maybe it's because I've been buying BTC when it was around $3,000 both in 2017 and just about a month ago, so I feel fortunate to have gotten another chance at BTC at $3,xxx.
I also learned my lesson that fakeouts happen. I've been burned enough to not give a shit about being BTC going from $3500 to $5,200 in the last, what, 5 weeks?
Been here, done it, don't give a shit.
I don't know if this helps anyone, but seeing the last two years of this shit, I don't care about some random 30% pump. I also don't care that BCH is up 86%, or ADA is up whatever it is. I'm not into them, but if you made gains, I'm happy for you.
I'm serious too.
Maybe you're new to this game, or maybe you've only been in since $20k. If so, you're still here, and there are plenty others like you. I'm not a BTC maximalist, I don't think LTC is the truth, I don't think only ETH is the dApp platform.
I don't know shit. I'm just some speculator that is speculating on some of this sit.
There are also plenty of people that were like me in 2017 that are waiting in the wings, only to buy when the market is on the rise. There are plenty more that buy when it's rising then set stop losses that whales will fish for only to wreck the market in a day then to see a bounce back even stronger while those people FOMO back in.
Also, the turd version of satoshi could start shitting in public this week and the media could write about how Satoshi is literally shitting on a physical Bitcoin as we speak and some shitcoin creator then posts a Twitter video that goes viral about how the hashrate and energy consumption of the satoshi shit-pile is not sustainable and then some whale market sells down to below the new TA shit-support level of $4,400 and then all the dopes with stop losses in that range get shit fucked only to see a spoof limit order set at $4,400 of 10,000 BTC and everyone's dick shrinks into their stomach as they hurry to Tether as BTC drops back down to $3,500 before whale #2 shit fucks your emotions with a $1,500 green dildo in a 15 minute span sees the "sell wall" disappear which starts the next FOMO run on up to $6,200 a few weeks later while TAers say "We broke out on great volume" then other TAers agree and the self-fulling prophecy starts another run only to get hit with more whale fuckers.
You can't predict this shit. Give it up.
Market goes up, market goes down, can't explain that.
With the LTC halving in August, the BTC halving in May 2020, I think we are about to get into the 2017 euphoria again though. We are getting closeTM to the point you could just thrown money at any coin and get 10x your investment.
What does "close" mean? I have no idea. Eff anyone that thinks they know. Someone could predict it is this week, next month, or after this current fakeout bull run, or in December, or next Spring, and someone will be right.
The only advice I have is to do your best to not get emotional about your money or crypto. It's going to do the exact opposite of what you think it will. Even when you try to do the opposite, crypto will shit-fuck you in your sleep.
If you believe that the sentiment is changing, and let's be real, we are in speculation phase and this is all based on hopium and belief, then DCA at certain intervals.
This isn't some cult. It's all based on sentiment. If you think people are starting to get interested, then that is a sign speculation is about to be in our favor.
If you are putting money in that needs to be rent money, do yourself a favor and just walk into a casino and put it all on red. If you win, then put your winnings in crypto. If you lose, I saved you the anguish of checking your portfolio every hour only wish you would have done the opposite of what you did.
You're welcome...
Or, do the opposite. Check the market every hour for the next 12 months only to look back and realize that you kept buying on the way up, got scared and sold on the way down, and then FUD yourself in your sleep because of your stop loss sells were triggered while whales were fishing for fear.
So, there are all of my shit thoughts. What are yours?
What are your strategies?
There are plenty of people that have been in longer than me, what are your strategies?
Are we heading for a the next bull run? Is the bottom in? Do we still have a massive, short-lived capitulation event coming?
Let's chat.
TL;DR: You can't predict this shit, just DCA, live your life, get a buy strategy, choose a sell point, make this shit as simple as possible. If you try to complicate things by predicting the next run, the next drop, the next consolidation, then you're probably going to be wrong like 99% of people. And don't be that guy that ends up $250,000 in your account in the next bull run only to see it drop down $67,000 literally a week later.
submitted by KnownCoder to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Vitalik Keeps Saying It. A lot of others say it too. Let's Get Real. Crypto and Blockchain Has a Major Problem Problem We Need to Address Immediately. Here's How I Think We'll Do It.

Vitalik Keeps Saying It. A lot of others say it too. Let's Get Real. Crypto and Blockchain Has a Major Problem Problem We Need to Address Immediately. Here's How I Think We'll Do It.

Let's get real. [Vitalik talks about this constantly]. The cryptocurrency/blockchain community has a cultural problem.

Edit: Links here suck. I put quotes around them so you can spot them out. I did a lot of research for this post.
Edit #2: Put square brackets around links. Now they should be clearly visible.
TLDR: The ills Vitalik talks about are primarily about psychology. New scalable solutions can fix it partially, but we have to deal with people first.
Before I dig deep into this post, I want to let you know what it's about. Yes, you'll see some emotional content. You'll see ideological ideas. However, this post ain't about ideologies. It's about something I deem as a real problem. Its about the corrupt mindsets that we have as community since the prices spiked early 2017. To advance forward, I want to analyze them, distill the problem into the most basic form possible, then point people into a direction I deem would be good for the cryptocurrency community. The format will go like this:
  1. My history with Crypto/Blockchain. Why I'm here in the first place.
  2. My analysis of the problem Vitalik talked about
  3. My perceived solution to the problem.
  4. The steps I've already taken towards the problem

Why I'm Here

Time travel back into pre-2017 and you'll see that the cryptocurrency/blockchain community was filled with hopeful young nerds that dreamed of making the world into a better place; A much more open, peaceful and freer place. I was going through a hard time with my life 2015-16 -- my twin died, I was on the verge of going homeless with nobody else to rely on, had to go unbanked in America, almost entirely dropped out of college and my first contracting business failed. I couldn't get my life right at all, and I didn't see any hope. The future was bleak to me. However, I found people here in the blockchain community actually trying their hardest to do things that would solve the world's problems, [even if that was mainly reporting the news for people and addressing people live in chat to create a community]. That drew me in well before the price of cryptocurrencies spiked; almost in a manic like way -- I read about it constantly, practiced solidity, talked to everyone I could that would have the capacity to understand cryptocurrencies and more.
Even now, when I attend conferences, I meet good-hearted, sleep deprived developers, marketers, business owners and specialist that aim to solve the world's greatest problems in the best ways they can. Many are in small corners of the world helping each other out. Inside of this community I found hope and meaning. My depression lifted, my anxiety went away, my life got back on track, and that hope propels me though the field years since I joined this movement. I'm now more confident than ever knowing that collectively this industry will possibly be the epicenter of change for not only money, but for everything. We'll [eliminate poverty], [solve global warming], [prevent hyper-inflation like we've seen with Venezuela], [improve supply chains] around the world, improve healthcare, and solve the [social ills of the world like corruption]. That's just the tip of the iceberg. I believe intensely in the vision set for crypto.
The community is filled with brilliant people that will make a difference. That excites me.
I'm for freedom, boosting happiness of individuals, increasing health, making life more fun and less stressful for the common person, open discussions to progress everyone forward, and a more livable planet. I'm thinking of all people and I'm not against any group. However, I'm not for FUD, greed while abusing others, bigotry, trolling, hatred, racism, evil acts and stealing. Those are against my values. I think that's against the values of many of the cryptocurrency community's foundational members.

A problem we can't ignore

In 2017, as the prices exploded and the returns grew in for the average person, I noticed the community was starting to get tainted. People were no longer focusing on technology, freedom and community. No longer focusing on creating better lives for people in their communities around the world. We were missing the altruism I originally felt in the community. [If I were in Vitalik shoes, where I'd invest 80-100 hours a week into a vision, I'd feel extreme frustration too]. People are instead focusing on [needless politics], searching for the next big price pump, the next big score. Instead of people figuring out about how to use blockchain and crypto for making people's lives better, I've heard people say HODL and scam more than I ever have in the history of the community. This saddens me and frustrates me at the same time. On one end I see great potential and beauty in the community, and at the same time I see the beast within us come out that hasn't been even thought about deeply enough to be accurately tamed. Trolls, profiteers running away with ICO money, market manipulators and scam artist ruining the reputation and progress of the community.
While I could complain about what I see, I decided to instead dissect it in this post. I wanted to know what's causing this on a larger scale. See, by training I'm a psychologist, social scientist and computer scientist. I've been transitioning over to economics and data science because I feel it's a solid cornerstone of the industry. My perspective will be coming from those first. Allow me to explain. If our community is going to "grow up and actually solve problems", the corruption of minds because of money needs to be fully explored first.
Only by understanding the problem thoroughly can we solve it.
Explicitly stating the problem: Its the extreme predatory, egotistical, harsh behavior we as a community have adopted.

The Psychology And Behavioral Science Of Finance

Let's start with the biggest premise. Money is an idea. It exist because people communicate, produce, share, trade, have scarcity for goods and have needs. Money is an ideological binding agent for people.
  • It helps us exchange two irrelevant things with a medium
  • Helps us do more things in knowing the value we hold will help us improve productivity in the future
  • Helps us determine value in an abstract way
  • Helps us navigate the world.
Money is about as social and psychological as anything in the world can get outside of direct human interactions. Coincidentally, this psychological/social aspect isn't talked about very much inside of the cryptocurrency landscape. However, it's the foundation of everything we have here today. If we can't talk about how money is connected to the mind, we can't solve the maturity problem Vitalik was talking about. My intent is to explore that deeply so a firm direction can be at least set.

Money and the Mind

Our mind is complex. Beyond the usual processing of information people have (our 11 senses), we people have 2 primary centers for decision making and control.
Limbic System
The first one is the limbic system. It has gone by the nickname of "the lizard brain" in recent history. It's responsible for storing memories, handling stress responses, attention and emotional processing. In a sense, it controls all of intuition and fast heuristic choices you make.
https://preview.redd.it/xvpw95ate8d11.png?width=551&format=png&auto=webp&s=eeed7e25448614af346091f6ededac41be9df5b5
Prefrontal Cortex
The second system is known as the prefrontal cortex. It controls higher order functions such as planning, reasoning, serial processing and how we think about emotions.
https://preview.redd.it/if5p4n90f8d11.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=92ef641c4f583d38239cdf380d443b2b7557767e
These two centers are not mutually exclusive. You brain has circuits to make decisions about everything. The two parts talk to each other to do so. Any dysfunction in behavior is usually due to a lack of communication between these two decision centers, rather than a lack of communication between the centers of your brain. This is heavily seen in mental disorders. According to the book [Upward Spiral ], a book that looks at mental disorders from a neuroscientific view and explains how to reverse the ill effects of them, here's now some disorders can play out inside of our heads:
  1. Depression -- A poor link between the Anterior Cingular Cortex and PFC. It means you will notice more negative and therefore act on negative impulses and thoughts.
  2. Dissociation -- A poor link between the Anterior Cingular Cortex and Anterior Insular makes it so your attention can't be accurately directed towards yourself. There will likely be a poor understanding of pain and out of body experiences. It can be reversed with meditation and yoga.

How Crypto Fits

This should hopefully be the first question we have. It's easy to only pay attention to the ill behaviors of the more recent cryptocurrency industry and say "shame on you!". But what if people had a hard time actually controlling themselves? Inside of the book Upward Spiral, Alex Korb, the neuroscientist that wrote it explored that people with depression and anxiety had a hard time not being depressed and anxious by choice. Because the depressed person's circuitry is skewed, they act on it subconsciously in a forever perpetuating loop. In fact, the only way to reverse depression is to reverse the circuitry that holds it together.
Part of what makes anti-depressants more effective is that the serotonin improves sleep and makes a person's brain more susceptible to positive changes. That would be doing things like doing gratitude journals everyday to make your anterior cingular cortices notice more positive events, being around people who love you to boost your serotonin and cut down stress hormones, or getting a little exercise everyday to send oxygen to your brain.
So that leads us back to the original question. What if people didn't have a fully conscious control over how they acted about money and crypto? I did some research between many different articles and found that this was absolutely the case. People don't have much control. They tend to be on extremes of some end all the time.
How Does Finance Play With The Brain?
Of the many ways, there's one key way it does. Money plays with people through the the hypothalamus stress response. It charges people into fight or flight mode, and can literally destabilize the homeostatic systems. This can do all sorts of things. It can make the anterior cingulate weaker in strength (known to help us control emotions and learn), and therefore reduce the power of our prefrontal cortex. When people are stressed about finance, or even excited about it, it will put people into extreme states. [Meaning the lizard brain takes the show]. That can make people easily make haphazard decisions.
Of course, there's other things that happen with the introduction of more money, but that IS the most intense thing to take note of.
If we want to solve the problem of relinquishing poor community, like Vitalik continuously makes comments about, we need to look at the problem in this way. If we don't see it this way, we're screwed. The problem wont be solved, companies like Microsoft will continuously kill off their implementations due to price fluctuations, the cryptocurrency community wont pass go and wont make a huge impact. Instead we'll blame, shout at each other, and create another Wall Street 2.0. In fact, we'll become worse than them. We will have more leverage over resources than any other group in history and the corruption will be strong.
Money affects decisions, period.

Solving the Cultural problem

I'm nervous. As I type this response, I know that by revealing my idea to the public I could be condemned by the community for "shilling", and even worse, somebody else can pick it up and run with it. That is the most nerve wreaking thing I could ever consider. Months of 80 hour weeks and extreme sacrifices to bring out a vision because I didn't see much of a choice. If we don't remove what limits us soon as a community we will get engulfed by outsiders that don't want to create virtuous society.
My solution: Algorithmic Trading
Now, before you tell me that the market is entirely unpredictable, I'd like to be one to say that the notion is false. We see everywhere that people using AI and more complex forms of math to be able to make reasonable gains in the financial world. Companies like Bridgewater predicted the financial crash of 2008 with reasonable accuracy, and other people like [mathematicians are able to do the same]. Realistically, the market has some degree of predictability. However, much of the access to that is limited.
Even beyond that, the financial industry is one of the only social fields that is highly transparent to many actors, through the news and price information, and reflects ideas and beliefs through the markets. If we can better analyze markets, we could discover all sorts of social phenomenon that previously made no sense. With algorithmic trading we're heavily incentivized to learn, as that will produce a direct outcome of earning money.
We could better solve the social ills of the world quickly and efficiently over time. On top of that, we will be able to stabilize the market and protect against bad agents if algorithmic trading becomes coordinated and effective enough throughout the industry.
Again, How Does it Fit With Cryptocurrency?
Bitconnect could answer how automated trading fits.
Before I continue, let me be clear. People lost their money through that scam. It was awful. I know some people that had a lot of money taken from them. Many of them are now fearful of cryptocurrency.
However, I don't think Bitconnect was 100% wrong with their idea. Yes they were a ponzi scheme, yet realistically many of the people I met that fell for it felt as though the crypto markets were already complex. They were losing money while HODLing, making rash decisions and trading.
Bitcoin and the entire industry carries too much of a cognitive burden for a person to keep track of beyond their normal everyday life. News, prices, scams, hacks and technical information. That's a lot to keep track of if you have 3-4 part-time jobs as a single mom or dad while raising 2 kids. That's a lot to keep track of if you're old and don't have the technical capacity to read into the crypto markets all day everyday.
Therefore, even while people were making less money from investing into Bitconnect, on paper it required less thinking and they were still getting benefits that they cared about. They could share with friends because they thought that there money would not shrink in value heavily due to a random market crash. As a consumer, it isn't wrong to believe that you can be apart of something big without having to work an extra 5 hours everyday reading blogs and watching youtube videos just to keep up with the happenings of the industry.
It doesn't require us to be judging people for falling into a ponzi scheme. It requires a bit of caring and empathy to see people's main intentions. They want a better life compared to the one that has been crushing them with student debt and poor job prospects. People want to have a better life without being as stressed beyond belief like they currently are.
And for the everyday trader, giving them the incentive they seek, while giving them the capacity to do some research for themselves is important. Choice matters a lot for some people.

Steps I've taken towards this:

Here comes the shill part you've been waiting for. Over the last year I've been building an application that would help us solve the problems we face today as a community. It I'll reduce the stress response of people worrying more about money, with technology like it getting standardized throughout the entire industry, it'll make things a lot more stable. It's an automated AI-based trading platform that aims to make reduce the cognitive load and worry about holding your funds in crypto. The aim of it is to dynamically trade for people while also letting them have 100% control over their funds. For now, that's by using exchange API keys. Though in the future, that can be through decentralized exchanges, meaning no middle man.
My product's name: It's [Funguana.com]. [Internally meaning the interconnection of all Dhrama in the Huayan Buddhist religion].
I've already received controversial reviews, and feel crazy for putting it back out there. However, I'm now confident I can follow through, and maybe by explaining my reasoning behind why I built it the community will respond differently this time.
To make it more trust-able, 4 months after public release, if my resources allow me to, I plan to open source the infrastructure code so people can implement their own platform within a matter of weeks, then systemically open many of the algorithms so they can appropriate powerful algorithms together over time (many not based on AI). I have to be strategic though. If I open it too soon, too many bad actors can enter the space and cause havoc early, without much chance to keep them in check.
Edit: I made changes to the page to make the links more obvious. Now they're in bold and italic
Edit 2: Adding quotes to make links more obvious again.
submitted by kivo360 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Forecast for 2020

There was a lot of excitement relatively recently around the cryptocurrency market, but over time, prices reached a logical level, returning the development of the industry to a normal rhythm. Despite the decrease in value, investor and user interest in BTC and altcoins is steadily growing.
Against the backdrop of the cryptocurrency boom, at the end of 2017, many believe that the cryptocurrency sphere is fading, but this is not true. According to numerous expert forecasts for the Bitcoin exchange rate for 2020, everything goes on as usual. It is this coin that takes first place in the market in terms of capitalization, and based on its rate, prices for other popular coins are determined.
How much will Bitcoin cost in 2020 and how will altcoins behave amid a change in the course of the main blockchain project? How will investors earn on digital assets and will mining remain relevant in the future?
What are the features of BTC?
Bitcoin is the symbol and flagship in the world of cryptocurrencies. In terms of economics and the traditional financial system, BTC is a digital product with a limited supply. The algorithm of the blockchain project is so arranged that there can not be more than 21 million tokens in the system. Each of them is called Bitcoin.
The developers programmatically calculated the emission schedule, and it is currently known to everyone. Based on it, some are trying to calculate the approximate cost of Bitcoin in 2020, but in reality, some other criteria affect the rate. When all the coins are issued, their total number will cease to change. The economic system of the blockchain project is based on deflationary principles, and this causes concern among financiers who are used to working with the traditional economic model.
Briefly about Bitcoin at the end of 2019
To date, the prospects for Bitcoin for 2020 are very good. Each BTC costs about $ 9,500 and analysts predict further growth. The capitalization ratio exceeds $ 150 billion. Over the past three months, the value of coins against the dollar decreased by several thousand - back in June, for each BTC on the exchanges they gave $ 13,400. Gradually, quotes fell to $ 7,000, but the coin won back to higher limits.
Prerequisites for the fall began to appear in July, and the market was adjusted almost the entire month. Correction is a natural process after spring growth. Many analysts sought explanations for the growth of Bitcoin in April, but in reality it was a regular pump.
In mid-August, contrary to many forecasts, Bitcoin was trading at $ 10,000, after which the price dropped to $ 7,000. At the end of October, the price returned to $ 10,000 again. The sharp rise in prices in a few days caused a lot of emotions among experts who did not expect such an increase. The main reasons include the plans of China in relation to blockchain technology.
What affects the rise and fall of Bitcoin in the market?
Forecasts for the BTC rate in 2020 are based on many factors that may affect the value of digital coins. Among the key criteria that are likely to affect the rate of tokens in the near future, there are:
  1. Creating an appropriate political foundation for the distribution of digital coins. The president of America is opposed to cryptocurrency, but the preservation of the post for him remains in question. In addition, there are supporters of blockchain technology in the US government today, especially against the backdrop of increased Chinese interest in this innovation. Americans are very afraid to lag behind their colleagues, so they should contribute to the development of cryptocurrencies and BTC in particular.
  2. Increase in trading volumes at Bakkt. Currently, the platform has little effect on the Bitcoin exchange rate, but it attracts the largest institutional investors. The project still has prospects, despite not the most active start. If the largest companies begin to appear in the cryptocurrency industry, BTC will definitely get a powerful boost.
  3. Adding BTC to financial exchanges. The appearance of Bitcoin on traditional exchanges will positively affect its course. If Wall Street companies begin to recognize the main coin, its value may increase significantly. To do this, BTC must be a regulated financial instrument, and this goes against the basic principles of developers.
  4. Lack of panic. Traders are now in a not-so-pleasant situation, especially those who managed to buy at the upper limits. At the same time, the massive drain of digital assets is very undesirable. If the holders keep their assets, the situation will necessarily stabilize, and by the end of the year Bitcoin will show significant growth.
  5. News. News background is one of the most powerful tools affecting the rate of Bitcoin and other coins. An important role is played by the launch of new blockchain projects, rumors about the emergence of powerful partners, statements by major investors, the recognition of cryptocurrencies at the state level, and much more.
There is a high probability that the value of the main coin in the market will continue to fluctuate until the end of the year.
Forecasts of the Bitcoin rate from well-known analysts
Many novice traders are looking for Bitcoin exchange rate forecasts to invest profitably and choose the right moment to buy or sell tokens. Analysts differ, but we have compiled for you some of the most authoritative among them.
J. McAfee, who created the popular McAfee Security antivirus, back in 2017 expected a price increase of BTC to $ 1 million. He still claims that he built the forecast not on intuition, but on a special model, but its essence is not disclosed. He promised that if his forecast does not come true until 2020, he will eat his genital organ. He is probably already very sorry about the statement.
Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee predicted BTC price growth in 2020 to $ 91 thousand. He conducted voluminous analytical work and focused on the cryptocurrency chart over the past nine years. He recently adjusted his forecast and said that at the end of 2019, the coin will cost $ 20,000.
The creator of the consulting company Crypto Solutions P. Anagnostu believes that in 2020 the price of BTC coins will exceed $ 50,000 per coin. Exact numbers are not reported, but he expects a rate in the range from 50,000 to 100,000 dollars.
An analyst from Bitcoinist named O. Avan-Nomayo noted that the price of Bitcoin should rise to $ 20,000 in the next six months. The forecast was based on the tendency of a decrease in remuneration by miners every 4 years.
D. Harriston, an analyst from Coinspeaker, believes that Bitcoin should rise to $ 30,000 in 2020. The expert is guided by the aspects of the three values ​​of the coin - consumer, investment and issue.
There are also unfavorable forecasts on the main digital coin exchange rate for the next year and the coming months.
Is it worth investing in BTC?
The risks of investing in cryptocurrencies have always been and remain. To minimize them, you need to carefully weigh and analyze everything. It is important to study information about the exchange through which you will buy tokens. The main significant factor is the period of stable operation of the blockchain project, but there is no such problem with Bitcoin - the platform is proven and reliable.
The main thing is not to buy digital assets for the last money, because in the event of a collapse in the market and a drop in BTC in price, you can not sell currency for nothing. You need to save coins until the course returns to its previous mark. All experienced traders try to stick to this plan, but not everyone has the patience.
We can definitely say that stock markets are likely to suffer in 2020, and Bitcoin prices should rise. Stable growth of the coin against the dollar is expected, but each investor decides by himself when to leave the game and to sell BTC.
submitted by vadim77top to u/vadim77top [link] [comments]

STOCK MARKET EMOTIONAL CYCLE - S&P 500, BITCOIN, MARIJUANA STOCKS Factors that Determine the Price of Bitcoin? 1/16/20 - Bitcoin Market Update - Tom Crown CHRIS SKINNER  Precious Metals, Stocks Bitcoin and Market Analysis Stock Market Emotional Cycle  Stages of Investor Emotions and Trading Psychology

We know the market is volatile. If you buy into a coin and it decreases in value, you can either cover yourself with a stop order, or if your coin is a long-term hold, you may want to wait it out. Have a look at price fluctuations over the last couple of months and see how the value has increased and decreased. Dollar-cost average Keep your emotions under control. A bitcoin trader has to witness numerous fluctuations and ups and downs. To face them easily, you must have good control over your emotions, and your emotions should influence yours. Usually, when a person faces bitcoin trading losses, he gets a bit worried, which leads him to make wrong decisions. It is highly important to stay unaffected by your emotions and ... Also, they eliminate human emotions like greed and fear during trading. Earlier, Warren Buffett who is considered as a value investor, said that greed and fear are the biggest hindrances for successful trading. By using the latest technologies like Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing, Bitcoin Robots would be able to read the human language; which means ... Finally, the emergence of a credible competitor, perhaps with the backing of major (central) banks, could see Bitcoin lose market share in future. Price Oddities. Sometimes an exchange’s price may be entirely different from the consensus price, as occurred for a sustained period on Mt. Gox prior to its failure and recently on the Winkelvoss’ Gemini exchange. In mid-Novermber 2015, BTCUSD ... One of the most popular and leading automated trading software developed by Jasper Boyle is Bitcoin Aussie System. This system. Take a look at our insightful Bitcoin Aussie System Review, and find exactly if it is safe to trade with Bitcoin Aussie System or not. Latest Updates! Trending; Kreatize Utilizes Technology by Werk24 for Processing Technical Drawings ...

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STOCK MARKET EMOTIONAL CYCLE - S&P 500, BITCOIN, MARIJUANA STOCKS

Learning about stock market investing from BITCOIN and MARIJUANA STOCKS – the cycle of market emotions! Is this bull market in the euphoria phase and will th... Wyckoff trading method - Understanding market phases and transitions and how to trade them - Duration: 35:06. Trading Zone 9,147 views What makes Bitcoin and other CryptoCurrencies go up in value? Francis Hunt, stock market trader and educator comments. PLEASE LIKE AND SHARE THIS VIDEO SO WE... Is Bitcoin Ready to Rally Again? Let's take a look at the chart for BTC, LTC, BCH and more! Let's take a look at the chart for BTC, LTC, BCH and more! - Duration: 59:48. LORDS OF THE PIVOT breaks MARKET FLUCTUATION down from High Level To Eye Level!!! www.instagram.com/lords_of_the_pivot/

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